There is no shortage of canaries in the global economic coalmine when it comes to
auguring the future impact of AI and automation on employment. World Economic
Forum Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab has predicted that robotics and AI will
destroy 5 million jobs by 2020. Vivek Wadhwa, a tech entrepreneur now teaching at
Carnegie Mellon, forecasts 80 to 90% of U.S. jobs will be eliminated in the next 10 to 15
years.
However, most of the discussion about smart automation’s impact on the labor market
has focused on developed countries. This is puzzling since the rich economies of the
OECD have demonstrated their ability to navigate previous cycles of disruptive
technological change such as electrification, mass transportation, and the information
age. The latest wave of intelligent technologies will no doubt cause great displacement
among some classes of the US, European, and advanced Asian workforce in the
coming decades. Yet these economies have the flexibility and innovation to reorganize
and redeploy their human capital – not only to survive the tide of intelligent automation –
but to emerge at the helm of the dynamic growth sectors that will be created. What
should worry the planet far more than the disappearance of mid-level accountancy jobs
in New York or London, is the impact intelligent technologies will have on the economic
development paradigm of lower-income Emerging Markets.
For decades, I have been helping governments, sovereign wealth funds and public
sector organizations adjust to macroeconomic, demographic and social challenges. Of
all the problems that my firm, Tiger Hill Capital, is called upon to address for lower-
income EM economies, few loom as large as the prospect that technology is eroding,
and may ultimately eliminate, the advantage of low labor costs. After all, one of the most
cherished models of economic development in recent times is the nurturing of export-
oriented manufacturing – or more recently service sectors – grounded in low-wage labor.
As these sectors thrive, they pull up a generation of households into the higher-
consumption middle-classes. Even EM economies with the cushion of extracted
commodities, must eventually diversify and become competitive in other sectors if they
are to create enough adequately-paid employment to improve living standards for the
population at large.
For the moment, this time-tested development model is still functioning, albeit under
substantial strain. Manufacturing jobs initially found a berth in China before the least
skilled sectors, such as textiles and electronics assembly, migrated to places such as
Bangladesh and Vietnam as China’s wages rose. Professional service jobs offshored by
the West in areas such as back-office accounting, IT, call center operators, market
research and creative, were initially gobbled up by India and have now diffused to other
low labor-cost markets such as the Philippines and Eastern Europe. EM economies
have also provided a safety valve for OECD labor shortages through waves of migrant
labor in all areas from teachers to nurses, and plumbers to construction workers.

Yet the reservoir of all these low-wage jobs is drying up, and will soon become parched
if intelligent technology intervenes. Efforts afoot to attract manufacturing to countries as
diverse as Ethiopia, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt and Myanmar could grind to a halt if
companies choose to take advantage of rapidly falling cost of automation rather than
uprooting production and taking a chance on a new manufacturing base. This is already
happening in China where the production of items such as integrated circuits,
microprocessors, batteries, and displays is proving resilient to lower-wage competition
because China has built strong supply chain clusters, adopted automation and forged
ahead into AI – investments that frontier Asian economies cannot yet afford. Meanwhile,
Adidas is bringing back much of its shoe manufacturing from Asia to two large, highly-
automated factories in Germany.
Professional services as well as administrative and ‘caring’ professions face a similar
plight as machines potentially supplant emerging pools of EM labor. One only has to
look at the high level of robots acting in these sectors in Japan, South Korea and China
to catch a glimpse of the future. And all this in a populist, anti-globalization climate
where the pressure is to re-shore jobs – often augmented with automation – rather than
engage overseas talent.
If intelligent automation undercuts the low-cost labor model of development, many
growing EM nations could jolt into reverse – destabilizing the most fragile ones and
leaving others in a poverty trap. To survive this new reality, lower-income EMs will have
to become radically more efficient in converting precious surpluses and FDI into the
basics of economic development: clean water, sanitation, increased agricultural
productivity, physical infrastructure and the rapid upskilling of talent – especially in
technology and digital skills. Delivering basic provisions, at scale, with 10x greater
efficiency will require the mass deployment of proven, disruptive technologies. Water-
efficient techno-toilets that process human waste to energy; off-grid solar; recycled
building materials; digitized education; e-government – these are all examples of
innovations ready for deployment. EMs with strong institutions, rule of law, and
business-friendly regulations will attract the funds and know-how to deliver these
‘leapfrog’ initiatives. Ultimately, if such measures generate a runway for skilled, creative
talent combined with new dimensions of competitiveness (e.g. low-cost solar energy),
EMs will harness unique permutations of capability advantages to win share in high-
value sectors.
It is time that the dialog on the new era of intelligent technologies expands to a wider
range of EMs. Countries open to pioneering new models of economic development will
likely join the ranks of prosperous nations and see ancillary benefits from the skills and
technologies based within their borders. Economies that do not adapt are heading to a
Darwinian fate.
Indranil Ghosh is CEO of Tiger Hill Capital, a London-based financial advisory, and
author of the forthcoming book The Seven Principles of Prosperity.

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